![]() Steve is moving CA-49 from Lean D to Toss-Up.ģ. MIKE LEVIN is no longer the favorite in his rematch with Republican BRIAN MARYOTT near San Diego.” Further south near San Diego, in California’s 49th district, Steve reports, “Democratic Rep. ![]() Steve is moving CA-27 from Toss-Up to Lean R.Ģ. Democrats are no longer willing to spend in the expensive L.A. MIKE GARCIA is looking more unlikely, despite the fact that Biden won the district by 13 points. North of Los Angeles, in California’s 27th district, Democrats’ once-promising task of ousting GOP Rep. Today we have three seats out west that Steve is moving towards the Republicans:ġ. RED WAVE KEEPS BUILDING IN HOUSE - The story in the final two weeks of the contest to control the House continues to be GOP encroachment into blue America.ĭouble-digit Biden seats continue to emerge as serious GOP pickup opportunities. Steve is moving the Pennsylvania governor race from Lean D to Likely D. It is not saying much for Democrats when the best news for them in this update is that an extremist shunned even by many in his own party - though not most House Republicans in Pennsylvania, it should be noted - is losing ground. So even as MEHMET OZ is closing the gap against Fetterman, GOP gubernatorial candidate DOUG MASTRIANO, who has largely been abandoned by national Republicans, has continued to struggle against Democrat JOSH SHAPIRO. | Ryan Collerd/AP PhotoĪ DEM BRIGHT SPOT IN PENNSYLVANIA - While far-right election-denying GOP candidates are positioned to win in Arizona, ticket-splitters seem alive and well in Pennsylvania. State Attorney General Josh Shapiro, Democratic nominee for governor, addresses attendees at an event in Philadelphia, Saturday, Oct. Also worth reading: WaPo’s Philip Bump’s “Far-right skeptics of GOP may soon have a state’s worth of Senate power,” in which he notes “Thiel and his compatriots, including Fox News’s TUCKER CARLSON, are on the brink of seeing GOP-skeptical right-wing allies wielding as much power in the Senate as the state of California.” RAPHAEL WARNOCK (Ga.) and CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO (Nev.).” RON JOHNSON has opened up a lead in some polls), they can likely flip control of the Senate by ousting only one of Democrats' most-vulnerable incumbents: Kelly and Sens. “If Republicans can hold Pennsylvania (where Democrats are sweating JOHN FETTERMAN’s shaky debate performance Tuesday night) and Wisconsin (where GOP Sen. It's now one of five ‘Toss Up’ races, joining Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin,” Steve says. What it means for control of the Senate: “In putting Arizona back on the board, Republicans have broadened their path to the Senate majority. Steve is moving the Arizona Senate race from Lean D to Toss-Up. Voters' dissatisfaction with President JOE BIDEN’s job performance and a strong campaign from gubernatorial nominee KARI LAKE have helped Masters close most of the gap with Democratic Sen. What Steve says: “Blake Masters can claim little credit for Republicans’ Arizona comeback - but he is reaping the benefits, propelling him back into contention for a key Senate seat some in the GOP once wrote off. ![]() “We believe this is a race that’s within a point in either direction, and there’s still a good chance that we would lose,” a Democrat close to the Kelly campaign told POLITICO this week. Kelly world agrees with this assessment of a toss-up race. But in mid-October, Thiel reportedly committed to spending another $5 million on his Arizona protege.Įven if the Thiel dough doesn’t come through, other conservative players, including a new Trump-backed group, are helping to prop up the 36-year-old tech executive. ![]() Even Masters’ own tech billionaire benefactor, PETER THIEL, seemed on the cusp of abandoning him. MARK KELLY had been left for dead in some quarters. GOP SENATE HOPES STRETCH INTO ARIZONA - BLAKE MASTERS’ campaign to unseat Democratic Sen. Let’s break these down with some help from Steve … Pennsylvania governor: Lean D to Likely D.Let’s begin with the headline: Five races are changing in this update, four of them in the GOP’s direction and one toward the Democratic candidate: NEW MIDTERM RATINGS UPDATE - Steve Shepard is out with the latest update of POLITICO’s 2022 forecast. Blake Masters walks on stage to speak at a Save America rally attended by former President Donald Trump in Prescott, Ariz., Friday, July 22. ![]()
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